Before 2009 Lok Sabha polls the popularity chart of BSP supremo Mayawati was soaring high. She had become a national leader of a high stature and an international figure. The world was curiously watching the rise of an untouchable to an amazing height in the country bogged down in casteism even in 21st century. It was nothing short of miracle. The political observers thought Mayawati had the political will and capacity to repeat her 2007 assembly poll success in 2009 Lok Sabha polls. So, all the fringe and regional parites who had aversion to Congress and BJP began building up a third alternative force around Mayawati. The Left parties had already broken away from UPA and desperately looking for options to confront Congress and BJP. The relations between Left parties and Congress had become bitter as a result of psychopathic differences over Indo-US Nuclear Deal. In 2008 Nuclear Deal reached at critical stage. Pro and anti forces of the deal were ranged up against each-other and issue was to be debated in the Parliament and put to vote on July 22, 2008.
The fate of Manmohan Singh government hung in balance. The Left parties were dead set against the deal as they saw red in everything USA offered to India due to their psychopathic hatred for the leading capitalist force that had ruined socialist movement the world over. The Left leaders flayed Manmohan regime for allowing itself to become proxy of USA against the global interests of China, the last heaven of communism. Their minds were frozen in the cold war ice age and could not see the realities of the new age of global compulsions. BJP was already against the deal for its own reasons and to fulfil the burning desire of its leader L.K. Advani to see Manmohan Singh ousted from power. How badly India needed the Nuclear Deal for its future energy needs was not his concern. The extreme right BJP and the Left could bring down the government. The Left leaders were running to every one and every coner to garner support against the Nuclear Deal. But amongst the people the realisation has begun to dawn that leftists were merely Chinese stooges who cared little about the interests of India if it even remotely hurt the interests of China.
The Left leaders overtaken by their hatred of USA were moving heaven and earth together to defeat the Indo-US Nuclear Deal. The leftist manage to range up some small parties and regional outfits to create a third force. CPI leader A.B. Bardhan ran to Mayawati and promised prime ministership if BSP joined third force to defeat the Indo-US Deal. It was a desperate act. A paty with 7-8 members in Lok Sabha was promising prime ministership to someone.
Although a long shot Mayawati saw a fortutious chance of her becoming PM coming her way only if Manmohan Singh government was voted down and ousted. The third force could project her as PM to head the new government. BJP could extend her outside support as it had done to make her CM in UP. Similar scene was building up at centre too and UP drama could be replayed.
Mayawati was certain that BJP under L.K. Advani would lend her support just to see Manmohan Singh replaced who he disposed. UPA was short of at least the support of 35 MPs to survive.
Thus, the die was cast. Left parties and the members of third force announced that Maywati could be next PM if UPA government lost. But it spoiled the equation and backfired.
The projection of Mayawati as the PM by the Left leaders stung Samajwadi Party duo of Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh, the arch-rivals of Mayawati. For the Mayawati Prime Minister was a very dreadful prospect. They could not have it at any cost. Although till yesterday Samajwadis were dead set against the Indo-US Nuclear Deal yet under the new political compulsions they suddenly shifted stance and declared their support for the Nuclear Deal. It stung the Left leaders who had taken Mulayam Singh granted to vote against the deal.
The equation had suddenly changed. UPA could now breath easy with the support of around 40 MPs. Manmohan Singh government survived. The motion in favour of the Indo-US Nuclear Deal won by 275 votes to 256. L.K. Advani looked crest fallen. The chance of Mayawati becoming PM was gone. The Left leaders were dismayed.
Perhaps in the Nuclear Deal case Mayawati took hasty step to side with Left leaders who were acting very irrationally driven by their hatred for George Bush, US President. The deal was vitally important for the future energy needs of India to sustain the economic growth. Pakistan and China were opposing the deal. That was a clear pointer that the deal was in favour of India. It showed her impatience and immaturity at the national level politics at least where complex issues were involved and national interest was as stake. Obviously UP scene could not be re-enacted at the centre. It is totally a different ball game. She will have to be very careful in playing central politics and have the assistance of capable advisors on various technical fields beyond social engineering level.
Mayawati failed to gauge the damage done by the Third Front members by adopting anti-Nuclear Deal stance. The Left parties paid a heavy price for it in 2009 Lok Sabha elections where they got almost wiped out. Their fate hangs in balance in W. Bengal and Kerala where the assembly polls will become due soon. In UP in 2009 Lok Sabha polls BSP was relagated to the third spot by SP and Congress.
But before the polls for Lok Sabha, the Left leaders raised a lot of dust claiming that the Third Front would come to power. Unrealistic and bizarre were their calculation and gross misjudgement of the situation or ground realities. They were under the delusion that the people were with them whereas the fact was that the voters were all set to teach them a lesson.
In pre-poll scenario Mayawati still trusted the Left leaders and believed the Third Front of the rag-tag parties could put her in the PM’s chair.
Menawhile NDA led by L.K. Advani as its prime ministerial candidate was sure that UPA was a lost case due to spiralling price rise, recession and the Mumbai 26/11 terrorist attack. UPA partners NCP and its leader Sharad Pawar were dropping hints it could play a king maker and Pawar may stake claim to prime ministership. There was a fourth fornt also consisting of Mulayam Singh, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ramvilas Paswan. Infact every group saw its chance as king maker or a bargainer in post-poll scene of hung Lok Sabha as a result of fractured mandate every pollster was predicting.
To stop Congress or BJP coming to power BSP was with Third Front ostensibly but the real reason was the front would project her as its prime ministerial candidate. Seat sharing was not yet worked out. Mayawati gave dinner to the Third Front leaders at her New Delhi residence.
It was revealed that BSP would stay out of seat sharing arrangement of the Third Front which did not bother the latter. CPM general secretary Prakash Karat said it was her policy decision. Standing with other leaders Mayawati called out for need of keeping the UPA and NDA (Congress and BJP) out of power in the national interest. It was a clear indication that Mayawati was with the Third Front ispite of having no seat sharing arrangement. The main aim was to provide the electorate a third option other than Congress and BJP. There were a lot a lone floaters who could combine with any possible alliance or possibility.
The main players of the Third Front were four Left parties, TRS, JD (S) and TDP while AIADMK, BJP and BSP were outside supporters. The Left leaders assured that the front would be able to provide stable non-Congress and non-BJP government. The claim of the Third Front appeared unconvincing. How could so many fringe parties with different ideologies, outlooks, interests, motives, political goals and self centered leaders come together to form a government at the centre while the country was grappling with problems like price rise, recession and cross border terrorism? The country needed an outfit with clearly defined policies and good track record.
The Third Front refrained from clearly committing itself to the prime ministership as it could offend some other aspirants like Jayalalita. The easy way out was to say the matter would be decided after the poll results were out, although it was clear BSP would settle for nothing but PM’s chair for its supremo. She could gain the support of BJP on UP lines. A Third Front aspirant would need atleast a block of solid 150 MPs supporting him/her from outside.
To an impartial observer, Third Front appeared a force being played by opportunist leaders and groups. It could not be taken seriously by the voters. In a way Mayawati did a wise thing not to become part of the Third Front formally. That could have tarnished her images and future prospects.
In Third Front and Fourth Front there were dozens of aspirants for prime ministership. UPA had made it clear that Dr. Manmohan Singh would again be its prime ministerial candidate for the second term. Similarly NDA had declared that L.K. Advani would be its choice for the post of prime minister. Thus, there was no confusion about the prime ministerial candidate so far as the two leading alliances were concerned. The choice before the voters was clear. The regional parties were ranged around these alliance according to their own preferences or political affinity.
Two main alliances were not in a good shape either. NDA led by BJP did not invoke confidence. BJP was a Hindu communal party that had spawned fanatical brigades under various names. It had the notoriety of having engineered massive communal riots and carnages. It carried the stigma of the Babri Masjid demolition, Gujarat and Bombay riots, dirty deal with terrorist in IA plane hijack to Kandahar, bad record against terrorist attacks and worst was that it was offering L.K. Adwani as PM, a man with Hindu fanatic image whom according to an opinion poll not many voters preferred.
The Congress too did not present any rosy picture. The grand old party was now a caricature of the monolithic organisation having massive presence in all the states. In some states now Congress was only an appendage to regional forces. In W. Bengal it conceded 28 seats to its own 14 seats in the seats sharing arrangement. In UP it tried to work out alliance with SP. Mulayam Singh, Amar Singh duo would not offered more than 17 seats out of 80 to Congress which begged for at least 25 seats. It could not take the humiliation and decided to go it alone banking uopn the ground work done by Rahul Gandhi over the past two years. But it proved bonanza for Congress. It did exceptionally well in UP, winning back much of its old support base. Infact Samajwadi party turned out to be the loser. It won only 23 seats compared to 36 of the previous Lok Sabha poll. Congress tally went upto 21 from the 9 seats it had earlier. It was indeed an incredible result. Later, in a by-election Congress wrested a seat from Samajwadi Party to make it 22 each. Then SP lost another MP when there was a spat with Amar Singh and his expulsion. Now Congress is at top with largest number of MPs from UP. Like miracle it worked, thanks to the efforts of Rahul Gandhi.
The Fourth Front was made up of SP, RJD and LJP of Mulayam Singh, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ramvilas Pawan respectively. These parties were all products of caste factoring and narrow minded politics of reservations. They prayed for the fractured mandate and hung parliament. In that scenario the three could reap a harvest when the horse trading could start.
But the election results dashed the hopes of leaders who were dreaming of fishing in troubled polluted waters of the parliament. All the political observers and the pollsters were proved wrong.
The electorate had given Congress led UPA near majority mandate to rule again. The tally of Congress alone crossed 200 mark which was incredible. Pro-BJP media had clamoured for a change. But the voters saw thorugh the trick. It was definitely no time for change at the centre. The country was passing through a critical stage. There was global recession affecting all the economies of the world. It required professional handling and Manmohan Singh government had the economic expertise to see the country through the recession phases it was already engaged in the exercise. The voters appeared to be satisfied with issue. Pakistan had been put under great global pressure to act against the terrorism being spawned and cultured in its land. On the issue of price rise the people seemed to have forgive UPA for its failure to check it. May be, the people understood the situations that led to the spiral. One opinion was that the price rise was indeed helping the rural economy and putting some money in the pockets of the impoverished village folk.
Then there was the factor of the scandal free clean and honest image of Dr. Manmohan Singh and the sincerity of Sonia Gandhi. Which easily evoked positive thoughts.
The rural construction and development schemes at mass scale also reaped electoral harvest for the UPA. The star of the schemes was Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act.
After two decades of communally viciated and poisoned atmosphere the people had enjoyed five years of tension free secular air. BJP was responsible for the spread of rebid Hindu communalism which fuelled the counter communalism. The people would not like to go back to those days of communal horrors and so, extended the tenure of Manmohan Singh government.
Mayawati had some experience about it. She often took credit for giving UP three tenures free of communal riots. At national scale secularism is the priceless asset of the nation. Hence seeking support of a comman party at the national scale could prove costly. In Gujarat Narendra Modi may win elections one after another but his fanatical image and the same factors make him unacceptable at national level. Similarly what applies for UP may not be truly applicable for India. The same qualifying factor for a state may become disqualification at centre.
Things and situations are seen with a different perspective from Delhi. BJP gained Gujarat but lost India. So, Mayawati will have to be very careful about choosing partners and policies at national level because national affairs are very serious matter.
She should not allow prejudiced minds mislead her into believing that the nation was a joke or her future prospects of becoming prime minister will be seriously damaged. At national level she won’t be taken seriously like Narendra Modi is. Last time around sadly Mayawati let leftists take her for a ride. The Left leaders were once offered a golden chance to lead the nation through Jyoti Basu but they threw away the chance and refused to accept the responsibility. They are not all serious about the affairs of the nation.
After the dinner hosted by Mayawati the Third Front leaders were asked as they were a collection of people of different ideologies, view points, varied interest and individual agendas what would be their national agenda and the policies if they came to power? Left leader Prakash Karat brazenly said they would discuss about the policies and common agenda only after the result were out. That clearly showed Third Front had no idea about policies or agenda. The aim was to grab power first and then decide about the policies by toss of coin? How could electorate trust such non-serious players who wanted to turn country into a joke that had no idea what it stood for? The country was no UP but a nation with political statue, natural traditions, foreign affairs, global economic interests, neutral policies, industrial activity, trade and commerce, law and order and thousand other things that need immediate attention everyday. A group aspiring for power must have a clear cut agenda to be taken seriously because the nation can not afford political vacuum even for a day.
At national level electorate has different perspective. National issues and policies matter much. A person aspiring to rule the country should have comprehensive agenda and well defined policies for the country, circulated in advance, debated and approved by some political circles and intelligentia. The electorate would like to know for what they are voting for or buying.
Those parties who played Third Front force and tried to make mockery of democratic process got severly punished by the voters. The Left parties paid heavy price for their illogical and psychopathic opposition to Indo-US Nuclear Deal. They almost got decimated. Other parties too fared badly.
In Bihar Lalu Yadav paid the price for failing to workout seat sharing formula with Congress. His party RJD could win only 4 seats compared to 24 it had in the last Lok Sabha. Ramvilas Paswan’s LJP was blanked out. In UP Mulayam Singh Yadav did manage to stay at top of the heap yet its strength came down to only 23 MPs in the parliament. If the state politics is a simple game of ‘Snakes & Ladders’ the national politics is a complex combination of Chess, Bridge and Poker played in sessions by the same players. If Mayawati is serious about hoisting BSP flag in Delhi she needs to tread carefully and keep the following factors in mind always :
Don’t openly side with the extreme left or extreme right. It will alienate the majority common folk.
She must have clear cut national agenda and well worked out policies on economy, industry, commerce, foreign affairs, agriculture, education, health, social reforms, defence, tackling terrorism, price control etc.
That will shape up a credible alliance or front because only like minded parties would come together to work for the common agenda.
The electorate wont trust a group of rejected and defeated leaders of different ideologies and political backgrounds coming together without any agenda or programme just to grasp power. Third Front was the typical example of this kind of exercise in 2009 Lok Sabha polls. Its rout was no surprise. Mayawati shouldn’t have stood amongst them and saved her credibility. The damage done to her national prospects is infact incalculable.
Mayawati must get her intellectual group prepare a comprehensive national agenda and policies to win support of the electorate. The people must know what BSP ruling Delhi would mean. The voters are not going to hand over a blank cheque.
The promises made or advice given by psychopathic and desperate politicians like A.B. Bardhan and Prakash Karat may not be taken seriously.
People value tension free secular atmosphere very much. Any alliance with a communal party could viciate the atmosphere again which will dispel the public support.
Being gentle and polite does not mean a person is weak and unworthy of the highest post of the country. Infact, the people respect such characters and punish the abusive detractors. L.K. Advani and the Left leaders learnt it when they went after suave Dr. Manmohan Singh.
The honest and the clean image of the person at top job is an asset to the alliance or coalition. The people admire the character and magnanimously forgive minor follies or failures. It was proved when inspite of unprecedented price rise the masses reposed faith in UPA government.
Works done for the benefit of deprived rural masses bring in handsome rewards. A spate of rural schemes launched by UPA gained it big support from rural areas.
The people no more care for slogans or rhetorics. In the new age solid work done at ground level matters and creates support.
On important national issues like Indo-US Nuclear Deal one must judge the case purely on its merit and its worth for the national interest. The issue should not be used for narrow political exegency or just for the opposition sake or simply to bring down a government. In the wake of the deal its opposition by BJP and Left parties on flimsy grounds proved disastrous for them. The politicians must understand that people are watching and they understand the game. They are no fools.
If Mayawati is really interested to enter the national political stage she needs to do some homework. She must have a panel of able advisors to formulate national agenda and policies in accordance with her basic aims objectives and the thinking. The most important are foreign affairs and economic policies. Once the agenda has been thrashed out Mayawati must articulate her views on various national issues from time to time. That will let people know how her mind was working and what will be the shape of things if she came to power at centre. If the advisors have worked out sound policies she is bound to gain support at national level. That should get her admirers and fan following. With a strong and people friendly agenda she would make a mark at national stage.
